The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its official astronomical forecast regarding the sighting of the Ramadan 1447 AH crescent, indicating a strong likelihood that the moon will be visible on the evening of February 18 across most parts of the country. According to the department, the new moon will be born on February 17 at exactly 5:01 PM (Pakistan Standard Time). Based on scientific calculations, the age of the moon by sunset on February 18 will be sufficient to make its sighting possible, provided weather conditions remain favorable.
Astronomers explain that the visibility of the crescent depends on several important factors, including the time of conjunction (birth of the new moon), the moon’s age at sunset, its angular separation from the sun (elongation), altitude above the horizon, and atmospheric clarity. Since the new moon will be born on the evening of February 17, it will be more than 24 hours old by the time the sun sets on February 18. This age is generally considered favorable for crescent visibility, especially when combined with clear skies and adequate altitude.
The Meteorological Department has also shared province-wise details regarding the last possible times for moon sighting on February 18. In Sindh, the crescent is expected to remain visible until approximately 7:24 PM, giving residents a reasonable window for observation. In Punjab, the time for moon sighting will extend until 7:08 PM. Balochistan, due to its western geographical location, will have the longest visibility window, with the crescent expected to remain observable until 7:47 PM.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the last time for sighting will be around 7:13 PM. Meanwhile, in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), the crescent will remain visible until approximately 6:58 PM, and in Gilgit-Baltistan, the moon sighting time will conclude at about 6:53 PM. These differences in visibility times are due to variations in sunset timing, geographical positioning, and the moon’s relative altitude in each region.
Weather conditions play a crucial role in determining whether the crescent can actually be seen. According to the PMD, most parts of the country are expected to experience clear or partly cloudy skies on the evening of February 18. Clear skies significantly enhance the chances of successful moon sighting, while heavy cloud cover, haze, or dust can obstruct visibility even if astronomical conditions are ideal. The department’s current forecast suggests that atmospheric conditions will generally be supportive of crescent observation.
Despite the strong scientific indication of visibility, the official start of Ramadan in Pakistan is determined by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee. The committee convenes on the 29th of Sha’ban to review reports of moon sightings from across the country. While astronomical data and forecasts are considered, the final decision is based on verified eyewitness testimonies in accordance with Islamic tradition. Therefore, even with favorable predictions, the formal announcement of Ramadan’s beginning will only be made after the committee completes its deliberations.
The sighting of the Ramadan moon holds deep religious and cultural significance for Muslims across Pakistan and around the world. Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic lunar calendar and is regarded as the holiest month in Islam. During this sacred period, Muslims observe daily fasts from dawn until sunset, refraining from food, drink, and other physical needs as an act of worship and spiritual discipline. The month is also marked by increased prayer, recitation of the Holy Quran, charity, and acts of kindness.
In many communities, the announcement of the crescent sighting is met with joy and celebration. Mosques prepare for special Taraweeh prayers, families begin making arrangements for Suhoor and Iftar, and markets witness increased activity as people purchase essential items for the holy month. The atmosphere often becomes festive, reflecting both spiritual devotion and communal unity.
In recent years, scientific institutions such as the Meteorological Department and SUPARCO have played a more active role in providing detailed astronomical data to support moon sighting efforts. These calculations help estimate the probability of visibility and reduce uncertainty. However, Pakistan continues to follow the traditional method of physical sighting, which sometimes results in differences of opinion between regions or neighboring countries.
If the crescent is sighted on February 18, Ramadan will begin the following day. If it is not sighted due to unexpected weather disturbances or other factors, the month of Sha’ban will complete 30 days, and Ramadan will commence a day later. Given the current astronomical calculations and predicted weather conditions, experts believe there is a strong chance that the crescent will be visible on February 18.
