{"id":13403,"date":"2026-03-21T16:04:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T16:04:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/?p=13403"},"modified":"2026-03-21T16:05:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T16:05:01","slug":"dubai-property-sector-shows-early-signs-of-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/?p=13403","title":{"rendered":"Dubai property sector shows early signs of weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dubai\u2019s property market is beginning to show early signs of weakening nearly three weeks into \u200bthe US-Israeli war on Iran<\/a>, with data from analysts showing tanking transaction volumes and some real estate agents pointing to price reductions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war, and \u200cTehran\u2019s strikes against Israel, US bases and Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates, have pierced Dubai\u2019s image as a safe haven for the world\u2019s wealthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real-estate transaction volumes in the UAE fell 37 per cent year-on-year in the first 12 days of March, and 49pc month-on-month, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated in a note published this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some properties are already being offered at big discounts, with price cuts of 12-15pc, according \u200bto some real estate agents and messages on social media that Reuters<\/em> reviewed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For instance, a seller was looking for a \u201cquick sale\u201d for a property close to the Burj Khalifa \u2014 the world\u2019s tallest building \u2014 a message shared by an agent read. The seller was looking for $650,000, down about 12pc from a previous price of $735,000 \u201cdue to the current situation\u201d. The agent spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An off-plan flat \u200bin Dubai\u2019s coveted Palm Jumeirah was also being offered at a 15pc discount to its original price to around $2 million, according to a message reviewed by Reuters<\/em> on a \u200bWhatsApp group created a week into the war.A general view of the Dubai Marina, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on March 3, 2026. \u2014 Reuters\/File<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Heading for a slowdown?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The UAE\u2019s real estate boom has mirrored Dubai\u2019s rise, but there were already concerns that the market was headed for a slowdown after five years of rising prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict is the biggest test to date for the market, where demand was fueled by an influx of wealthy migrants attracted by the UAE\u2019s tax-free regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares<\/a> in property developers have \u200bfallen, with Emaar Properties, the developer behind Burj Khalifa, down more than 26pc on the Dubai bourse since the war began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Goldman Sachs said the total value of completed \u200btransactions so far this month was down by half compared with February \u2014 a much bigger drop than during the 2024 Dubai floods<\/a> or a previous Iran-Israel conflict<\/a> last June \u2014 although it said \u200cthe median \u2060transacted price was only down 3pc on a year earlier.A general view of residential skyscrapers and a beach in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on March 11, 2021. \u2014 Reuters\/File<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts at Citi<\/a> say the war introduced \u201cconsiderable risk\u201d for Dubai\u2019s future population growth expectations as it could deter home-buyers and property investors. They now assume 1pc population growth in Dubai this year, and 2-2.5pc annually between 2027 and 2031, against 4pc in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They said that in their bearish case for Dubai, property prices would drop by an average of 7pc annually between this year and 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Activity has not stopped<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, executives on the ground are not panicking, \u200bsaying market activity has not stopped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI believe \u200beveryone is very different in how \u2060they assess risk and how they perceive risk. But the data tells a very clear story, right? Transactions haven\u2019t stopped,\u201d said Imran Sheikh, founder and chairman at real estate investment firm BlackOak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have one client from Africa who has said, if you see any \u200bopportunities over the next month, please go ahead,\u201d Sheikh said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One circa-$25 million off-plan unit on the Palm was sold to \u200bformer UFC heavyweight champion \u2060Francis Ngannou this week, which developer Arada said \u201cunderscores continued investor appetite for branded luxury residences in Dubai\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are many investors who are calling us to ask if you have clients who want to sell at distress or anybody who sells at a discount, (and say) we\u2019re ready to buy it,\u201d Himanshu Khandelwal, CEO at Dubai-based investment firm Asas Capital, told Reuters<\/em>, citing \u2060Emirati clients \u200band Indian family offices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emaar Properties founder and Chair Mohamed Alabbar was sanguine, telling CNBC<\/em><\/a> this month that \u201cnobody \u200bwants to budge\u201d on price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt present, we are not seeing widespread discounting, as most buyers remain focused on long-term value rather than short-term price fluctuations,\u201d Tauseef Khan, founder and chair at Dugasta Properties, told Reuters<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dubai\u2019s property market is beginning to show early signs of weakening nearly three weeks into \u200bthe US-Israeli war on Iran, with data from analysts showing tanking transaction volumes and some real estate agents pointing to price reductions. The war, and \u200cTehran\u2019s strikes against Israel, US bases and Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates, have pierced […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13404,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"no","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_3859443944190656_828796993651875":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[{"account":"facebook_3859443944190656_828796993651875","service":"facebook","timestamp":1774109122,"status":"success"}],"rop_publish_now_status":"done","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-13403","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13403"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13403\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13405,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13403\/revisions\/13405"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paksouch.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}