Islamabad: During the ongoing $7 billion Staff Level Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Government of Pakistan has failed to resolve an annual $6 billion discrepancy in trade statistics, raising serious concerns among policymakers.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), operating under the Ministry of Planning, has been unable to address this statistical gap. When the IMF mission raised this issue during their visit to Islamabad from September 25 to October 8, 2025, the government responded by hastily forming a new committee to investigate the matter.
According to official documents, the newly formed committee will be led by PBS and will include representatives from the State Bank of Pakistan and the Chief of International Trade and Finance from the Ministry of Planning.
The Ministry of Planning has attributed the growing discrepancy to the transition of trade reporting systems from PRAL (Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited) to the Pakistan Single Window (PSW). This systemic transition has reportedly created challenges in maintaining consistent and accurate trade data reporting.
Under the General Statistics Act of 2011, PBS serves as the sole regulator for all national statistical matters, with the authority to monitor, coordinate, and analyze trade and financial statistics.
Sources indicate that the trade data discrepancy reached approximately $6 billion in the last fiscal year, while the cumulative gap over the past five years has soared to an estimated $25-30 billion.
This significant statistical inconsistency poses serious challenges for economic planning, policy formulation, and Pakistan’s commitments under the IMF program. The discrepancy particularly affects the accuracy of current account calculations and balance of payments assessments, which are crucial for macroeconomic stability.
The IMF has consistently emphasized the importance of reliable economic data for effective program monitoring. The failure to reconcile these trade figures could potentially impact the review process of Pakistan’s ongoing bailout package.
Economic experts suggest that the discrepancy may stem from multiple factors including misclassification of trade items, timing differences in reporting, under-invoicing or over-invoicing of exports and imports, and inconsistencies between customs data and financial flows recorded by the State Bank.
The newly formed committee faces the urgent task of identifying the root causes of this persistent discrepancy and implementing corrective measures to ensure accurate trade data reporting, which is essential for sound economic policymaking and maintaining credibility with international financial institutions.
