Sindh, Pakistan: The flood situation in Sindh has once again drawn attention as water inflows at Kotri Barrage surged to alarming levels, crossing 376,000 cusecs on Monday. According to the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), while water levels at some upstream barrages have started to recede, Kotri remains under medium-level flood conditions, keeping nearby communities on high alert.
Kotri Barrage Under Strain
The Indus River, which runs through the heart of Pakistan, is monitored at several key barrages to assess flood risks. Among them, Kotri Barrage, located downstream in Sindh, is a critical point because it often bears the brunt of excess water traveling from northern catchment areas.
As per the latest FFD report, the inflow at Kotri has risen to 376,000 cusecs, putting it under medium flood classification. This has raised concerns about potential inundation of adjacent settlements and agricultural lands in the lower Sindh region.
Situation Upstream
The situation at other barrages, however, shows relative improvement. At Guddu Barrage, water levels have dropped to 240,000 cusecs, indicating a decline from earlier higher flows. Officials confirmed that the flood intensity there has now reduced to a low-level flood, easing pressure on embankments and adjoining areas.
Similarly, Sukkur Barrage, which historically faces enormous pressure during heavy floods due to its central position on the Indus, has also seen water levels recede to near-normal. The decline at Guddu and Sukkur has provided some relief, but the downstream surge at Kotri remains a cause for vigilance.
Sutlej River Still Under Stress
The flood situation is not confined to the Indus alone. Authorities have confirmed that the Sutlej River continues to experience elevated water flows. At Ganda Singh Wala, the Sutlej is currently facing a medium-level flood, while Head Islam and Head Sulemanki remain under low flood conditions.
The persistent stress on the Sutlej has already impacted several districts of Punjab, where thousands of families were forced to evacuate earlier in September. Though conditions have stabilized in some areas, the continued inflows remain a risk, especially if fresh rainfall occurs in the catchment areas.
Dams Near Maximum Capacity
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the status of Pakistan’s two major reservoirs: Tarbela Dam on the Indus and Mangla Dam on the Jhelum. Officials revealed that after Tarbela, which had already reached full conservation level earlier this season, Mangla Dam is now 98 percent filled.
This means the reservoir has only two feet of storage capacity left, after which additional inflows will have to be released downstream. While full dams are vital for irrigation and power generation, their near-maximum levels during the monsoon season can complicate flood management efforts. Controlled releases are likely in the coming days, which may further impact river flows downstream.
Flood Management Measures
Authorities in Sindh and Punjab have been directed to maintain high preparedness levels. Embankments at Kotri and other vulnerable points are being closely monitored. The Irrigation Department has deployed additional staff to ensure 24-hour surveillance of riverbanks, canals, and protective dykes.
Emergency relief teams, including the Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs), have been instructed to remain on standby in case of sudden breaches or inundation. Local administrations are also advising communities living in low-lying areas near the river to prepare for possible evacuations.
Communities at Risk
The Kotri region is particularly sensitive because of its downstream position. In past floods, breaches near Kotri led to large-scale destruction in rural Sindh, submerging villages, damaging crops, and displacing thousands of people. With 376,000 cusecs currently flowing, the risk of damage depends largely on whether the river continues to rise or stabilizes over the coming days.
Farmers in districts along the Indus, including Thatta, Jamshoro, and Badin, are already worried about their standing crops. Cotton, sugarcane, and paddy fields are vulnerable to waterlogging and flooding. Local residents fear that even if embankments hold, seepage and overflow could destroy livelihoods.
Expert Opinions
Flood experts note that Pakistan’s water infrastructure, although extensive, faces limitations when extraordinary monsoon discharges occur. While barrages like Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri regulate flows effectively, the sheer volume of water during peak floods often overwhelms capacity.
They warn that climate change is further complicating the situation. Erratic rainfall patterns in upstream India and Pakistan mean that sudden surges of water may occur without sufficient time for downstream areas to prepare. “We cannot rely on past patterns anymore,” one hydrology expert explained. “The inflows into Kotri highlight the new climate reality — floods of this scale may become more frequent.”
National Impact
Flooding in Pakistan has long-term economic and humanitarian consequences. The agriculture sector, which provides livelihoods for millions, suffers the most immediate damage. Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and irrigation channels also face deterioration during prolonged high flows.
Moreover, the strain on reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla underlines the need for improved water storage and flood management strategies. While full dams provide an opportunity for energy generation, they also limit flexibility when fresh floodwater arrives unexpectedly.
Outlook
Authorities are cautiously monitoring whether the inflows at Kotri will continue to rise or plateau. With both Mangla and Tarbela dams filled to near capacity, any additional rain in northern catchment areas could quickly aggravate the situation downstream.
For now, the situation at Guddu and Sukkur offers some relief, but the heightened pressure at Kotri demands continued vigilance. Communities along the Indus, particularly in Sindh’s vulnerable districts, remain braced for potential evacuation orders should conditions deteriorate further.
