• Reservoirs hold more than 13.1MAF water, 99pc of peak capacity
• Tarbela reaches full conservation level of 1,550 feet; Mangla nearly filled to brim
• Chashma Barrage also attains record storage level of 649 feet; officials expect minimal water shortage in Rabi season; wheat to benefit most
ISLAMABAD: After many years, Pakistan will begin the upcoming Rabi season with healthy carryover water storage of more than 13 million acre feet (MAF) in reservoirs, which may partially offset agriculture output losses caused by floods in the outgoing Kharif season.
“We expect water situation in Rabi season to be normal after many years”, said an official, adding that any shortage “will be minimal, bearable and manageable”. He noted that, after many years, we are also hopeful of having a reasonable carryover into the next Kharif season.
While Tarbela Dam reached its peak conservation level of 1,550 feet last month and has remained there, Mangla Dam is struggling at 1,239.6 feet as of Sunday night against its maximum conservation level of 1,242 feet, as river Jhelum flows remained low throughout the Kharif season.
As a result, Mangla’s storage was reported at 7.1MAF on Sunday night, compared to its maximum storage capacity of 7.277MAF. Officials, however, were not very hopeful about filling Mangla Dam to its capacity, as conservation was building very slowly with only 18,800 cusecs of inflow. Almost half of this (around 9,000 cusecs) was being released to Upper Jhelum Canal for drinking water needs. Mangla would require another 100,000 cusecs to attain maximum conservation, which appeared unlikely in the remaining nine days of the season.
Mangla storage had peaked at 1,233.25 feet at the end of Kharif 2023 and 1,224 feet in 2024. This meant that the country’s largest reservoir could not go beyond 5.9MAF last year, while it has already crossed 7.1MAF this year.
On the other hand, Tarbela Dam peaked to 1,548 feet in 2023 and 1,549 feet in 2024, compared to 1,550 feet this year. Chasma Barrage also attained its peak storage capacity of 649 feet this year, compared to 645 feet in 2023 and 646 feet last year.
As such, total storage has already crossed 13.1MAF, almost 99pc of the peak capacity of 13.3MAF. Last year, the storage had touched 11.388MAF. At present, all rivers are flowing at normal levels, except for medium floods at Kotri Barrage and Ganda Singhwala in the Sutlej River.
Given the reasonable quantities of water still in the irrigation system after the floods, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has not yet scheduled meetings of its technical and advisory committees, as the provinces have not sought fresh allocations for water discharges.
Normally, both committees meet in the last week of September when provinces place indents for the first 10 days of Rabi.
Officials, however, cautioned that heavy sand deposits have been reported across farmlands due to the prolonged standing floodwaters in Punjab’s plains — unlike the usual fertile deposits that accompany floods. They said it was too early to predict the condition of agricultural lands until these areas are cleared of standing water.
Meetings of Irsa’s technical and advisory committees will be called once the floodwaters recede. An official said Sindh province usually places indents for Rabi crops, but this has not been the case this year, as it is still dealing with the flood situation.
Around 24MAF of water has already flowed into the sea since the beginning of the Kharif season on April 1 — almost double the combined storage capacity of the two major reservoirs — Tarbela and Mangla.
The total water requirement for Rabi crops, under the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991, is about 37-38MAF with the carryover from Kharif, water availability is expected to be close to 35-36MAF, along with river flows over the next six months. The 1991 Water Accord empowers Irsa to determine water availability in the country and allocate the provinces’ share twice a year — for Kharif and Rabi seasons. Rabi season runs from Oct 1 to March 31, with wheat being largest crop. Other Rabi crops include gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard.
